Alex Jones will be implicated in an illicit drug scandal by the end of 2013.

Created by Digglerson on 2013-02-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.

• Digglerson estimated 22% on 2013-02-27
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2013-02-27
• Peter Hurford estimated 2% on 2013-02-27
• Digglerson estimated 2% on 2013-02-27
• Tuxedage estimated 1% on 2013-02-27
• gwern estimated 4% and said “jones has had a radio show since at least ‘96 or 17 years ago with no sex or drug scandals. if each is equally likely, then by laplace’s law it’s 1/2 * 1+1/17+1 = 5.5%.” on 2013-02-27
• ChristianKl estimated 2% on 2013-03-05
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-01-02.