The Terrafugia company will begin selling the Transition flying car to private individuals as a street-legal and air-legal vehicle in the United States by the end of 2011.

Created by hmadison on 2010-08-11; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• hmadison estimated 80% on 2010-08-11
• gwern estimated 40% on 2010-08-12
• kallman estimated 5% and said “I don’t see legislators letting you drive a plane on normal roads, plus seems open to abuse (criminal element?)” on 2010-11-23
• gwern said “wikipedia says the vehicle is now scheduled for 2012; marking wrong” on 2011-12-31
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-31.