“A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2010” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.

• gwern estimated 2% on 2010-08-12
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=674142&z=1281597018269 at 7%” on 2010-08-12
• gimpf estimated 2% on 2010-12-12
• gwern said “nope!” on 2010-12-30
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2010-12-30.