“A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• gwern estimated 10% on 2010-08-12
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=674143&z=1281597114595 at 20.5%” on 2010-08-12
• gwern said “I should probably mention that I intend to judge all Intrade-sourced predictions as however Intrade closes out the market.” on 2010-08-12
• kallman estimated 5% and said “Pipe dream, sadly.” on 2010-11-23
• gimpf estimated 90% on 2010-12-13
• fergus estimated 20% on 2011-08-18
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 0% on 2011-12-26
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-31.