“A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

• gwern estimated 30% on 2010-08-12
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=721154&z=1281597231741 at 40%” on 2010-08-12
• gimpf estimated 40% on 2010-12-13
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-31.