“AIG to repay all TARP funds by midnight ET on 31 Dec 2010” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.

• gwern estimated 2% on 2010-08-12
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=676634&z=1281597366135 at 2% as well on next to no volume” on 2010-08-12
• gwern said “intrade still way down, and http://www.onwallstreet.com/news/aig-repayment-plan-2670304-1.html seems to imply any repayment would be next year so marking wrong” on 2010-12-30
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2010-12-30.