“AIG to repay all TARP funds by midnight ET on 31 Dec 2010” —Intrade
- gwern estimated 2% on 2010-08-12
- gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=676634&z=1281597366135 at 2% as well on next to no volume” on 2010-08-12
- gwern said “intrade still way down, and http://www.onwallstreet.com/news/aig-repayment-plan-2670304-1.html seems to imply any repayment would be next year so marking wrong” on 2010-12-30
- gwern judged this prediction wrong on 2010-12-30.
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