C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) will hit Mars

Created by dhoe on 2013-03-02; known on 2014-11-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-10-28.

• dhoe estimated 2% on 2013-03-02
• Peter Hurford estimated 1% on 2013-03-02
• simplicio estimated 5% on 2013-03-02
• dusk estimated 0% on 2013-03-05
• gwern estimated 1% and said “the current nasa estimates are <1% aren’t they? as cool as it would be for it to hit…” on 2013-03-05
• Tuxedage estimated 1% on 2013-03-07
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2013-03-07
• kuudes   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-10-28.
• kuudes said “Did not hit. Closest approach 19 October 2014 at 18:28 ± 0:01 UTC"http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=1003228;cad=1#cad":http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=1003228;cad=1#cad” on 2014-10-28