“In 2022 more than 60% of US engineering undergraduate seniors will have tried a legal brain enhancing supplemental substance.” (Kevin Fischer XFF 2012)

Created by dusk on 2013-03-05; known 14 days ago; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum 2 days ago.

  • dusk estimated 50% on 2013-03-05
  • Tuxedage said “I think that this is already the case (Caffeine).on 2013-03-05
  • gwern said “need better definitions. if it includes caffeine, it is indeed trivially true.on 2013-03-05
  • Qiaochu said “How do you get accurate data on this? on 2013-03-13
  • dusk said “I quoted the prediction as it was said, in the context of a presentation on dietary supplements. Please exclude the use of caffeine when evaluating this prediction. on 2013-03-26
  • Jayson Virissimo said “There are plenty of ingredients in common energy drinks that are brain enhancing supplemental substances. Like gwern said, this is already trivially true.on 2013-03-27
  • themusicgod1 said “this definitely includes caffeine as writtenon 2016-10-10
  • themusicgod1 said “and if we’re just excluding caffeine, then caffeine derivatives(ie energy drinks) on 2016-10-10
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “Unfortunately, 2022 did not happen by the specified deadline.2 days ago
  • Tapetum-Lucidum   judged this prediction wrong 2 days ago.
  • JoshuaZ said “That’s a reason to bump the deadline, not a reason to mark this wrong. 2 days ago
  • Baeboo   judged this prediction unknown 1 day ago.
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “It helps to read my comment with a deadpan voice. about 5 hours ago
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “I’ve created some additional busywork for you guys, in case this is really the hill you want to die on. about 5 hours ago

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