Facebook will cut off API access to Hangtime if the product gets “too popular” (> 5 mil users)

Created by daffodilian on 2013-03-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-07-13.

• daffodilian estimated 90% on 2013-03-06
• Ben Doherty estimated 45% on 2013-03-07
• Qiaochu said “How will you judge the prediction if the product never gets “too popular”? ” on 2013-03-13
• gwern said “right, presumably; that’s the usual interpretation of conditionals – if x → y where ~x, evaluates to true. in this case, I see nothing in google about Hangtime being cut off by FB” on 2013-07-13
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2013-07-13.