Antibiotics to become useless within 10 years. —Tim Walsh

Created by gwern on 2010-08-13; known about 21 hours ago; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus about 20 hours ago.

  • gwern estimated 60% on 2010-08-13
  • gwern said ““This is potentially the end. There are no antibiotics in the pipeline that have activity against NDM 1-producing enterobacteriaceae.”on 2010-08-13
  • gwern said ““We have a bleak window of ~10 years… but also grapple with the reality that we have nothing to treat these infections with.”on 2010-08-13
  • gwern said “http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2010/aug/12/the-end-of-antibiotics-health-infectionson 2010-08-13
  • benwr estimated 5% and said “http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature14098.htmlon 2015-01-11
  • benwr said “While Teixobactin is only effective for Gram-positive bacteria (and thus not those that produce NDM1), it seems that this research will save “antibiotics,” the category, from total obsolescence within 10 years.on 2015-01-11
  • JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2015-01-11
  • BiasedCalibration estimated 2% on 2015-01-16
  • EloiseRosen estimated 10% on 2015-01-25
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 2% on 2015-06-07
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 20% on 2015-06-08
  • Chri estimated 5% on 2015-06-08
  • btrettel estimated 10% on 2015-07-11
  • themusicgod1 estimated 33% on 2016-04-14
  • Athrithalix estimated 6% on 2018-02-22
  • pranomostro estimated 10% on 2019-01-13
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 0% on 2020-06-24
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 0% and said “Even given hindsight bias, I’m not sure why anyone took this claim seriously? “Widespread incidence of bacterial infections against which antibiotics are useless” might have been plausible, but the claim as written is absurdly strong.14 days ago
  • PlacidPlatypus said “And hindsight probably isn’t that strong a factor here: I originally missed the date and thought this was a claim about the next ten years, and I wouldn’t have put the odds above 5-10%.14 days ago
  • arrowinthedark estimated 5% 4 days ago
  • PlacidPlatypus   judged this prediction wrong about 20 hours ago.

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