“…a consensus emerged that there is a better than 50 percent chance that Israel will launch a strike by next July.” —Jeffrey Goldberg

Created by gwern on 2010-08-13; known on 2011-07-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-07-31.

• gwern estimated 20% on 2010-08-13
• gwern said “http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/print/2010/09/the-point-of-no-return/8186/” on 2010-08-13
• gimpf estimated 30% and said “What is “launch a strike” exactly? There were times in Europe when Austria agreed that attacks with less then 3500 man are irrelevant…” on 2010-12-13
• gwern said “no attack of any kind unless we want to count stuxnet or the scientist assassinations as attacks, which are probbaly Israeli and clearly not a US military strike in this sense. marking wrong.” on 2011-07-31
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-07-31.