“Average Global Temperature for 2010 to be among five warmest years on record” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2011-01-02; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-02.

• gwern estimated 96% on 2010-08-15
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=705988&z=1281870733709 at 95%” on 2010-08-15
• gwern said “cf. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1643” on 2010-08-15
• gwern said “currently at 99%. going to jump the gun and close it as right.” on 2011-01-02
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2011-01-02.