In 2016 Tesla Motors will sell a <$30,000 electric car.
Created by qznc on 2015-11-12; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2017-01-03.
- qznc estimated 30% on 2015-11-12
- Idrinkitup estimated 40% on 2015-11-12
- JoshuaZ estimated 42% on 2015-11-12
- Medea estimated 30% on 2015-11-12
- danielfilan said “Does this refer to the price including tax credits and/or rebates?” on 2015-11-15
- JoshuaZ said “Hmm, that’s a good point. I was thinking of including them, but it is possible that others were not and that may be why I assigned a higher probability. ” on 2015-11-15
- JoshuaZ said “Hmm, that’s a good point. I was thinking of including them, but it is possible that others were not and that may be why I assigned a higher probability. ” on 2015-11-15
- PseudonymousUser said “The Model 3 is expected to be released much later than that. The Model S and Model X are significantly more expensive.” on 2015-11-27
- PseudonymousUser said “Are you counting pre-orders as sales? Musk suggested pre-orders for the model 3 will start in March 2016, even though the car won’t even be manufactured until some time in 2017.” on 2015-11-27
- PseudonymousUser estimated 5% on 2015-11-27
- PseudonymousUser said “I’m assuming we will not count pre-orders as sales until the car gets shipped to the customer.” on 2015-11-27
- PseudonymousUser said “Unless qznc responds, I am going to assume pre-orders will not count as “sales” until the cars are actually produced. Elon Musk announces cars and starts accepting preorders at least a year ahead of production.” on 2015-12-20
- themusicgod1 estimated 43% on 2016-07-10
- gwern said “if pre-orders don’t count, I think this should be wrong. the Tesla Model 3 isn’t anywhere near production much less shipping to pre-orderers: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_3 it might launch in 2017 (but probably won’t)” on 2017-01-01
- qznc said “Most people assumed, that preorders do not count as sales, so judging accordingly.” on 2017-01-03
- qznc judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-03.