“Global Average Temperature for 2010 to be higher than for 2009” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2011-01-03; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-05.

• gwern estimated 96% on 2010-08-15
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=707798&z=1281871626053 at 92%” on 2010-08-15
• gwern said “contract at 99.5 with no sellers, might as well close as correct” on 2011-01-05
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2011-01-05.