“Global Average Temperature for 2019 to be higher than for 2009” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2010-08-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.

• gwern estimated 95% on 2010-08-16
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=707799&z=1281947509611 at 98%” on 2010-08-16
• gwern said “cf. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1653 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1654” on 2010-08-16
• themusicgod1 estimated 87% on 2016-10-07
• pkfalu92 estimated 90% on 2016-12-04
• pranomostro estimated 90% on 2019-01-10
• Bruno Parga said “We won’t know the 2019 value for a few months. But the data we have right now show this is very likely right.” on 2019-12-31
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction right on 2020-01-08.