“Global Average Temperature for 2019 to be 0.2 degrees celsius (or more) higher than for 2009” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2010-08-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.

• gwern estimated 80% on 2010-08-16
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=707800&z=1281947560598 at 98%” on 2010-08-16
• gwern said “cf. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1652 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1654” on 2010-08-16
• themusicgod1 estimated 87% on 2016-10-07
• pkfalu92 estimated 90% on 2016-12-04
• pranomostro estimated 85% on 2019-01-10
• Bruno Parga said “The anomaly for 2009 was 0.56, 2019 1.2.” on 2020-01-08
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction right on 2020-01-08.