“Global Average Temperature for 2010-2014 to exceed that for 2005-2009 by 0.1 deg C or more” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2010-08-16; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-31.

• gwern estimated 50% on 2010-08-16
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=715165&z=1281947615754 at 49.5%” on 2010-08-16
• gwern said “cf. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1652 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1653” on 2010-08-16
• The_Offwo estimated 51% on 2015-01-05
• kuudes   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-01-31.
• kuudes said “http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/global/2014/ann/timeseries/decadal-avgs.png” on 2015-01-31