“Global Temperature Anomaly for Jul 2010 to be greater than 0.50 Degrees C” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2010-08-16; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.

• gwern estimated 95% on 2010-08-16
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=720041&z=1281947664450 at 97%” on 2010-08-16
• gwern said “cf. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1657 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1656” on 2010-08-16
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2010-12-30.