“Global Temperature Anomaly for Sep 2010 to be greater than 0.50 Degrees C” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2010-08-16; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.

• gwern estimated 30% on 2010-08-16
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=729664&z=1281947791036 at 35% (? nontrading)” on 2010-08-16
• gwern said “cf. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1656 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1655” on 2010-08-16
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2010-12-30.