Carr-Benkler wager: by 2011 most big content sites (Digg, Flickr, YouTube etc.) will be professional than amateur driven.

Created by gwern on 2010-08-17; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-01.

• gwern estimated 1% on 2010-08-17
• gwern said “http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carr-Benkler_wager http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1590440-1,00.html” on 2010-08-17
• gwern said “http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2006/aug/03/guardianweeklytechnologysection” on 2010-08-17
• gwern said “sure doesn’t look like it from where I stand. the wager unsurprisingly hasn’t been officially settled yet but I think its clear how it will be” on 2011-01-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-01-01.