“the largest area of impact from technological change over the next decade will come from increasing communications bandwidth.” —Michael Vassar

Created by gwern on 2010-08-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-04-21.

  • gwern estimated 70% on 2010-08-17
  • gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/1dpn?c=1 100x supercomputers, e-paper, battery longevity aren’t as importanton 2010-08-17
  • Malgidus estimated 95% and said “Nothing in human history will compare to having 5 billion minds connected. Arguably, decreases in poverty and preventable disease is more important, but may not be as “impactful”.on 2013-03-27
  • themusicgod1 said “how to measure this?on 2016-10-07
  • pranomostro estimated 65% and said “Agree with @themusicgod1. Unclear resolution criteria.on 2019-01-10
  • gwern said “If you frame this as consequences of bandwidth, like social media on smartphones, I admit, it did have an enormous impact on humanity – much more so than anything like CRISPR.on 2020-01-01
  • Bruno Parga said “This decade we seem to have moved significantly closer to AGI, cultured meat and space colonization. All three seem very impactful. I think this prediction is just underdetermined and should perhaps be removed?on 2020-01-01
  • pranomostro said “I agree with Bruno Parga – but if we must resolve this, it should be positive.on 2020-01-07
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “Given that a valid argument to the contrary was not named, it would appear that all parties tacitly agree that this prediction was correct. on 2020-04-21
  • Tapetum-Lucidum   judged this prediction right on 2020-04-21.

Please log in to respond to or judge prediction