“the largest area of impact from technological change over the next decade will come from increasing communications bandwidth.” —Michael Vassar

Created by gwern on 2010-08-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-04-21.

• gwern estimated 70% on 2010-08-17
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/1dpn?c=1 100x supercomputers, e-paper, battery longevity aren’t as important” on 2010-08-17
• Malgidus estimated 95% and said “Nothing in human history will compare to having 5 billion minds connected. Arguably, decreases in poverty and preventable disease is more important, but may not be as “impactful”.” on 2013-03-27
• themusicgod1 said “how to measure this?” on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 65% and said “Agree with @themusicgod1. Unclear resolution criteria.” on 2019-01-10
• gwern said “If you frame this as consequences of bandwidth, like social media on smartphones, I admit, it did have an enormous impact on humanity – much more so than anything like CRISPR.” on 2020-01-01
• Bruno Parga said “This decade we seem to have moved significantly closer to AGI, cultured meat and space colonization. All three seem very impactful. I think this prediction is just underdetermined and should perhaps be removed?” on 2020-01-01
• pranomostro said “I agree with Bruno Parga – but if we must resolve this, it should be positive.” on 2020-01-07
• PseudonymousUser said “Given that a valid argument to the contrary was not named, it would appear that all parties tacitly agree that this prediction was correct. ” on 2020-04-21
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction right on 2020-04-21.