“energy consumption will grow on a par or less than population growth.” —W.H. Pearson

Created by gwern on 2010-08-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

• gwern estimated 20% on 2010-08-17
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/1dps?c=1” on 2010-08-17
• themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-10-07
• themusicgod1 estimated 36% on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 25% on 2019-01-10
• Baeboo estimated 23% on 2019-01-11
• Bruno Parga said “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption says 2010 was 101 PWh, and 2017, the latest year for which data is available, was 113 PWh (12.0% growth). World population in 2010 was 6.933bn and in 2017 it was 7.53bn (8.6% growth).” on 2020-01-01
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.