“We will end the decade with some mobile [electronics] energy storage system with an energy density close to or better than fat metabolism.” —W.H. Pearson

Created by gwern on 2010-08-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.

• gwern estimated 40% on 2010-08-17
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/1dpw?c=1 specifies must be ‘commonly used’.” on 2010-08-17
• pranomostro estimated 45% on 2019-01-10
• Bruno Parga said “For reference, burning 1g of fat releases 9 Calories, or 9 kilocalories (lowercase – yes, it’s stupid), equal to 37.7 kJ.” on 2020-01-01
• Bruno Parga said “Per Quora (https://cutt.ly/Gryx31A)), a density of 130 Wh/kg was typical in May 2018. That is 0.468 kJ/g, off by two orders of magnitude. I say this is wrong.” on 2020-01-01
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-08.