23andMe will offer >=550k SNP genotyping for <=$100 during 2014.

Created by gwern on 2010-08-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-12-31.

• gwern estimated 70% on 2010-08-19
• gwern changed their prediction from “23andMe will offer >=550 SNP genotyping for <=$100 during 2014.” on 2010-08-19
• gwern said “23andMe currently offers 500K (https://www.23andme.com/you/faqwin/chip/)) SNPs for $429. ” on 2010-08-19
• gwern said “see also http://lesswrong.com/lw/25l/23andme_genome_analysis_99_today_only/2gy8” on 2010-08-19
• gwern said “price is currently at a flat $200. I may have been overly pessimistic in the timeframe!” on 2011-01-10
• gwern said “oops I’ve been corrected – $200 doesn’t include the mandatory subscription, so it’s actually >=$259. well, still quite a drop…” on 2011-01-10
• gwern said “23andme default SNP up to 1m: http://scienceblogs.com/geneticfuture/2010/11/news_from_23andme_a_bigger_chi.php” on 2011-02-13
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 80% and said “I got mine this year for $99 +subscription…I think it was on sale” on 2011-11-06
• PseudonymousUser estimated 60% on 2011-11-06
• gwern said “whole genome <$1000 by 2020: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5544” on 2012-01-28
• gwern said “They currently offer it for $108.95 (their advertised $99, while no longer including a subscription, still includes mandatory S&H and so total is still >$100).” on 2014-10-27
• kuudes estimated 67% and said “There is currently “Order one kit for $99, get 20% off all others” offer ongoing. I guess it depends if they have seasonal sale…” on 2014-12-01
• gwern said “I don’t count bulk discounts: always much lower and unpredictable. they don’t seem to have lowered the US price to <=$100. So, marking wrong. Not sure about next year either: clearly they could but given the FDA, do they dare?” on 2014-12-31
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-12-31.