“By 2020 open elections are held for the Iranian presidency (no significant factions excluded from participation)” —Jack

Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

• gwern estimated 30% on 2010-08-20
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/1dwa?c=1” on 2010-08-20
• gwern said “see also http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1684” on 2010-08-20
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/1dwa?c=1” on 2010-08-20
• pranomostro estimated 5% and said “Assuming the status since 2005 would resolve negatively.” on 2019-01-10
• Baeboo estimated 5% on 2019-01-11
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.
• Bruno Parga said “Parties must accept the Islamic Republic status quo (submission to the ayatollahs).” on 2020-01-01