Life will be discovered on Titan by 2030.

Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by gwern on 2010-09-06.

• gwern estimated 15% on 2010-08-20
• gwern said “http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Titan_%28moon%29#Future_missions mentions a mission that could ideally arrive in 2023. Allowing for bureaucratic delays, 2030.” on 2010-08-20
• core   judged this prediction wrong on 2010-08-20.
• gwern   judged this prediction unknown on 2010-08-20.
• gwern said “How could you possibly judge this wrong already?” on 2010-08-20
• SilentWarrior   judged this prediction wrong on 2010-09-01.
• gwern changed their prediction from “Life will be discovered on Titan.” on 2010-09-06
• gwern   judged this prediction unknown on 2010-09-06.
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% and said “Requires that we both successfully get the mission to Titan in that time frame and that there’s actually life there. ” on 2011-05-24
• Anubhav estimated 10% on 2011-10-12
• lavalamp estimated 8% on 2011-11-10
• muflax estimated 3% on 2011-11-11
• Grognor estimated 1% on 2011-12-06
• themusicgod1 estimated 3% on 2016-10-07
• JoshuaZ estimated 4% and said “Reducing due to no signs of likely missions any time soon. ” on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 2% on 2019-01-10
• pranomostro estimated 10% on 2019-01-10
• chemotaxis101 estimated 0% on 2020-09-13