The USA government foreign policy will concentrate on attacking little countries like Grenada that are nearby rather than on big distant ones like Iraq after August 2010

Created by gavinl on 2010-08-20; known on 2020-08-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-08-16.

• gavinl estimated 90% on 2010-08-20
• gwern said “Pick a better date – 10 hours is absurd. Also, what is ‘little’ and ‘nearby’? Please specify by GDP, square miles, etc.” on 2010-08-20
• gavinl changed the deadline from “on 2010-08-20” on 2010-08-25
• gwern said “Since you didn’t change the date, I’ve pushed it out to 2020. Given tempo of USM operations, plausible that another one will be launched by then.” on 2010-08-25
• themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-10-07
• NickN estimated 0% on 2020-08-16
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-08-16.