“Within ten years the U.S. repudiates its debt either officially or with an inflation rate of over 100% for one year” —James Miller

Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2010-08-21
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/1dx6?c=1” on 2010-08-21
• Larks estimated 1% on 2010-09-29
• JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2011-06-20
• Ken estimated 8% on 2011-09-13
• themusicgod1 estimated 3% on 2016-10-07
• JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 2% on 2019-01-10
• Baeboo estimated 0% on 2019-01-11
• elephantower   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-12-31.