“Within five years the Israeli economy will have been devastated because many believe there is a high probability that an atomic bomb will someday be used against Israel” —James Miller
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-01.
- gwern estimated 3% on 2010-08-21
- Larks estimated 4% on 2010-09-29
- JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2011-05-24
- JoshuaZ judged this prediction wrong on 2015-01-01.
- JoshuaZ judged this prediction wrong on 2015-01-01.
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