“Either the Iranian regime is overthrown by popular revolution, or there is an overt airstrike against Iran by either the US or Israel, or Israel is attacked by an Iranian nuclear weapon” -dfranke
- gwern estimated 30% on 2010-08-23
- gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/1dxq?c=1” on 2010-08-23
- JoshuaZ estimated 65% on 2010-09-29
- Larks estimated 25% on 2010-09-29
- Jach estimated 55% on 2011-10-27
- JoshuaZ judged this prediction wrong on 2013-12-31.
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