“Either the Iranian regime is overthrown by popular revolution, or there is an overt airstrike against Iran by either the US or Israel, or Israel is attacked by an Iranian nuclear weapon” -dfranke

Created by gwern on 2010-08-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.

• gwern estimated 30% on 2010-08-23
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/1dxq?c=1” on 2010-08-23
• JoshuaZ estimated 65% on 2010-09-29
• Larks estimated 25% on 2010-09-29
• Jach estimated 55% on 2011-10-27
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-12-31.