ARNA will have a Advisory Committee vote with at least 75% members voting for approval

Created by Mo_Money_2make on 2010-08-23; known on 2010-09-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-17.

• Mo_Money_2make estimated 75% on 2010-08-23
• dakyne estimated 80% and said “Agreed, as the AC tends to be more lenient than the FDA.” on 2010-08-23
• gwern said “from http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1703 I assume this is about locaserin. going to mark this one wrong since the news for today is 5-7 against” on 2010-09-17
• gwern said “http://www.genengnews.com/gen-news-highlights/arena-and-eisai-s-obesity-therapy-weighed-down-by-fda-panel-vote-against-approval/81243941/” on 2010-09-17
• gwern said “er, 9-5 against” on 2010-09-17
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2010-09-17.
• dakyne said “Agreed, this one was way wrong, as the FDA railroaded ARNA.” on 2010-09-19