ARNA will be approved by the FDA on October 22, 2010

Created by Mo_Money_2make on 2010-08-23; known on 2010-10-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-24.

• Mo_Money_2make estimated 90% on 2010-08-23
• dakyne estimated 70% and said “On paper, Lorcaserin should be approved. The FDA can be inconsistent and political tho—hence, my lowered probability.” on 2010-08-23
• dakyne estimated 20% and said “After their disastrous advisory committee review, I am reducing it to 20%—and that is optimistic.” on 2010-09-19
• gwern said “Seems to have been rejected: http://seekingalpha.com/article/231836-arena-s-fat-chance-for-drug-approval-no-surprises-thereSo marking this wrong.” on 2010-10-24
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2010-10-24.