“At least one Asian movie will exceed $400 mn in worldwide box office gross before the end of the decade.” —blogospheroid

Created by gwern on 2010-08-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-11-21.

• gwern estimated 75% on 2010-08-24
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/1e27?c=1” on 2010-08-24
• PseudonymousUser estimated 95% on 2011-01-22
• gwern said “asian movie market now grossing 8.7b: http://www.markjamesrussell.com/2011/02/23/asia-leads-world-box-office-2010/ getting there…” on 2011-02-23
• themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-10-07
• PseudonymousUser said ““It also became the fastest film to surpass US$500 million and the first film to gross more than US$600 million at the Chinese box office.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolf_Warrior_2” on 2017-11-21
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction right on 2017-11-21.