“I will continue to post on LW at least once a month next year” —magfrump

Created by gwern on 2010-08-25; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• gwern estimated 80% on 2010-08-25
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/1e7g?c=1” on 2010-08-25
• fergus estimated 50% on 2011-08-18
• Laurent Bossavit estimated 80% on 2011-09-04
• Jayson Virissimo said “Does this mean at least one post every week of 2011 or at least 52 or more posts for the year?” on 2011-11-06
• Jayson Virissimo said “correction: month, not week; 12, not 52” on 2011-11-06
• Laurent Bossavit estimated 90% on 2011-11-22
• Laurent Bossavit estimated 100% and said “Borne out, as far as I can tell.” on 2011-12-14
• gwern said “Assuming post=comment as everyone does seem to, this is correct – just wnet through http://lesswrong.com/user/magfrump/comments/?count=175&after=t1_3grc back to january and every month had comments. marking right.” on 2011-12-31
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2011-12-31.