A state will try to secede from the US. —Nancy Lebovitz

Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

• gwern estimated 1% on 2010-08-26
• gwern changed their prediction from “A state will try to secede from the US.” on 2010-08-26
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/1eea” on 2010-08-26
• gwern changed their prediction from “A state will try to secede from the US. —Nancy Lebowitz” on 2010-08-26
• Larks estimated 2% on 2010-09-29
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2011-05-24
• Jack estimated 1% on 2011-08-31
• Ken estimated 1% on 2011-09-12
• Anubhav estimated 2% on 2011-10-12
• themusicgod1 estimated 24% on 2016-10-07
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 1% on 2019-01-03
• pranomostro estimated 5% on 2019-01-10
• pranomostro estimated 1% on 2019-01-10
• Pablo estimated 0% on 2019-12-31
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.