A state will try & succeed in seceding from the US. —Nancy Lebovitz

Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2020-01-01.

• gwern estimated 1% on 2010-08-26
• gwern changed their prediction from “A state will try & succeed in seceding from the US. —Nancy Lebowitz” on 2010-08-26
• datadataeverywhere estimated 1% on 2010-09-30
• Anubhav estimated 0% on 2011-11-16
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% on 2011-11-16
• kilobug estimated 10% on 2011-11-18
• muflax estimated 1% on 2011-11-18
• najdorf estimated 1% on 2013-02-06
• Tuxedage estimated 1% on 2013-02-07
• hedges estimated 0% on 2013-03-22
• btrettel estimated 1% on 2015-07-26
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2016-04-15
• themusicgod1 estimated 12% on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 15% on 2018-12-20
• pranomostro estimated 2% and said “Noticed the date.” on 2019-01-10
• muflax   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.