Automated machines for custom shoes in widespread use. —Nancy Lebovitz

Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2010-08-26
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/1eea?c=1” on 2010-08-26
• gwern said “I suppose it’s possible – only takes one chain committing to it – but don’t see demand there for the infrastructure to support it.” on 2010-08-26
• gwern changed their prediction from “Automated machines for custom shoes in widespread use. —Nancy Lebowitz” on 2010-08-26
• JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2011-08-29
• themusicgod1 estimated 47% and said “bottleneck is mostly fashion at this point” on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 5% on 2019-01-10
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.