“By December 31, 2020, synthetic solar energy (fusion) will have been shown to be a technically feasible method of electrical power generation, by an experiment demonstrating a controlled fusion reaction producing more harnessable energy than was used to

Created by gwern on 2010-08-28; known on 2020-12-31

• gwern estimated 10% on 2010-08-28
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/578” on 2010-08-28
• gwern said “The smart money is not on fusion, let us say.” on 2010-08-28
• gwern said “Hillis has registered a variation: http://www.longbets.org/605 Doesn’t seem different enough to be worth bothering recording as a separate prediction.” on 2011-02-28
• btrettel estimated 1% on 2015-09-04
• JoshuaZ estimated 15% and said “The date is just much too soon. ” on 2015-09-04
• themusicgod1 estimated 33% on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 20% on 2019-01-10