“By 2050 Baidu.com will surpass Google.com and become world's number 1 search engine.” —Yan Bashkin

Created by gwern on 2010-08-30; known on 2050-01-01

• gwern estimated 5% on 2010-08-30
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/577” on 2010-08-30
• gwern said “Yan thinks he can predict fine details like #1 search engine ranking 40 years out! Heck, I’m not confident there will even be search engines in 2050.” on 2010-08-30
• Larks estimated 1% on 2010-09-29
• Bagricula estimated 10% and said “Technically, could happen 5 years out and still be valid” on 2010-09-29
• Ken estimated 80% and said “Seems like this is the default thing that will happen as the size of the Chinese middle class increases. A long timespan on the prediction makes it more likely.” on 2011-09-13
• JoshuaZ estimated 20% and said “As phrased it seems to just need to occur sometime before 2050, not on 2050. Main problem seems to be that Google is not just the US while Baidu is almost completely just China. ” on 2011-09-13
• gwern estimated 50% and said “was that there on longbets before? “Baidu will have more users by 2050, or before, at any given moment that Baidu surpasses Google, the bet is over (Baidu will become a winner then).”” on 2011-09-13
• JoshuaZ said “No idea. I just took a look at it now. Bagricula’s comment suggests that any change occurred at least 11 months ago if it did get changed. It would be nice if Longbets included detailed histories of bets. ” on 2011-09-14
• Grognor estimated 30% on 2011-12-06
• themusicgod1 estimated 53% on 2016-10-07
• JoshuaZ estimated 19% on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 40% on 2019-01-10