An alternative to using seat belts (i.e., seatbelt-less seats) will be invented for air travel by 2013.
- kochikvp estimated 60% on 2010-08-30
- gwern estimated 5% and said “Perpetual motion has been invented too. 0 chance any new invention would get certified and see uptake; so I’ll split the difference.” on 2010-08-31
- Bagricula estimated 80% and said “excluding uptake probability…am gonna need to dig through the patent office” on 2010-09-29
- gimpf estimated 1% on 2010-12-12
- Jach estimated 3% on 2011-08-18
- Osuniev estimated 2% and said “of course it is easier to predict that now.” on 2013-09-05
- gwern said “marking wrong in lieu of someone coming up with an example” on 2013-09-05
- gwern judged this prediction wrong on 2013-09-05.
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