“The Freedom Tower to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2010-09-06; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.

• gwern estimated 40% on 2010-09-06
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=674136&z=1283793786924 at 45%” on 2010-09-06
• gwern said “cf. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1745” on 2010-09-06
• PseudonymousUser said “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_Tower says the opening is in 2014” on 2013-12-31
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-12-31.