“The Freedom Tower to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2014” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2010-09-06; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-05.

• gwern estimated 70% on 2010-09-06
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=674137&z=1283793857046 at 70” on 2010-09-06
• gwern said “cf http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1744” on 2010-09-06
• PseudonymousUser estimated 95% on 2013-12-31
• gwern estimated 95% and said “WP currently estimates Jan 2014. overrun of another year unlikely” on 2013-12-31
• kuudes   judged this prediction right on 2014-12-05.