The Supreme Court will overturn the ability to patent genes.

Created by Tuxedage on 2013-04-14; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-06-13.

• Tuxedage estimated 10% on 2013-04-14
• Tuxedage said “Related article: http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2013/04/will-the-supreme-court-end-human-gene-patents-after-three-decades/” on 2013-04-14
• Osuniev estimated 85% and said “might be wishful thinking on my behalf, but I am having difficulty imagining the Supreme Court NOT doing so.” on 2013-04-15
• RandomThinker estimated 45% on 2013-04-15
• gwern estimated 40% and said “haven’t read the orals, which is always a good source. they avoided overturning software patents in 2010 (just muddying the waters), which doesn’t augur either for overturning or the overturning being clear than a punt or technicality” on 2013-04-16
• hedges estimated 40% on 2013-04-17
• Isaac estimated 30% on 2013-05-09
• Tuxedage   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-06-13.
• Tuxedage said “I was wrong. Congratulations everybody, especially Osuniev.http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/06/13/supreme-court-gene-breast-ovarian-cancer-patent/2382053/” on 2013-06-13
• RandomThinker said “@tuxedage. Color me surprised as well. Wonder how prediction markets did on this? ” on 2013-06-14
• RandomThinker said “Apparently, the legal eagles are on top of this. FantasySCOTUS said 60% reverse. http://www.fantasyscotus.net/tracker/association-for-molecular-pathology-v-myriad-genetics/” on 2013-06-14