PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

The next US president (after Obama) will also be a Democrat.

Created by Osuniev on 2013-04-15; known on 2016-11-15; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.

  • Osuniev estimated 48% on 2013-04-15
  • Peter Hurford estimated 55% on 2013-04-15
  • RandomThinker estimated 45% and said “Hard to win 3 in a row” on 2013-04-15
  • Tuxedage estimated 60% on 2013-04-15
  • gwern estimated 52% and said “sounds like the gambler’s fallacy talking! the democrats’ odds post-Obama are pretty much the same as they’ve always been. 2 presidencies of the same party can easily succeed each other (Reagan then Bush being a recent example)” on 2013-04-16
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 60% on 2013-04-16
  • alecbrooks estimated 48% on 2013-04-16
  • Osuniev said “Gwern : although this are hardly independent outcomes. (Resentment, desillusion, insatisfaction of the voters, etc…)” on 2013-04-17
  • hedges estimated 55% on 2013-04-17
  • gwern said “Osuniev: yes, there may be some dependence, but at this point in time… dependence which direction? there’s still a long way to go to the next election.” on 2013-04-17
  • JoshuaZ estimated 53% on 2013-04-17
  • dhoe estimated 50% on 2013-04-19
  • itaibn estimated 50% on 2013-04-19
  • RobertLumley estimated 55% on 2013-04-21
  • RobertLumley said “Democrats have shown they’ve adjusted to the information age, Republicans haven’t. Doesn’t mean they won’t, though.” on 2013-04-21
  • ctp estimated 55% on 2013-04-24
  • Cy Fleming estimated 51% on 2013-04-24
  • Bojidar Kojouharov estimated 55% on 2013-04-25
  • jaibot estimated 66% and said “Demographics are still a thing.” on 2013-04-26
  • HonoreDB estimated 65% and said “Democrats have their act together and increasing demographic edge. Republicans have a near-lock on the House through 2020, and voters like divided government. Also, nonzero chance that Biden succeeds before 2016.” on 2013-04-26
  • andrevan estimated 66% on 2013-04-27
  • Isaac estimated 65% on 2013-05-09
  • Michael Dickens estimated 55% on 2013-06-16
  • themusicgod1 estimated 15% on 2016-08-14
  • splorridge estimated 46% on 2016-08-15
  • splorridge   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-11-09.