The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-15; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by M on 2022-01-01.

• RandomThinker estimated 45% on 2013-04-15
• dusk estimated 80% on 2013-04-15
• Tuxedage estimated 50% on 2013-04-15
• a0c4a123f7 estimated 20% and said “Haven’t found him in three years, the people who were accused of being him have all denied it.Someone might claim to be him but I don’t think we’ll have a high confidence in it/know.” on 2013-04-15
• gwern said “Yes, is this just about speculation about Nakamoto or hard irrefutable proof (like him signing with the genesis block address a message giving his real-world identity)?” on 2013-04-16
• RandomThinker said “This will be judged by how the press characterizes it. The speculation now is reported as speculation by the press.” on 2013-04-16
• RandomThinker said “Deep throat wasn’t revealed until 30 years later. The press won’t report it as solved unless it pretty clear.” on 2013-04-16
• Samm estimated 30% on 2013-04-26
• gwern estimated 60% on 2015-11-15
• JoshuaZ estimated 38% on 2015-11-15
• Nic_Smith estimated 10% on 2015-11-17
• qznc estimated 20% on 2015-11-25
• PseudonymousUser estimated 20% on 2015-11-27
• danielfilan estimated 20% on 2015-11-27
• Medea estimated 30% on 2015-12-01
• kuudes estimated 80% on 2015-12-08
• kuudes said “http://www.wired.com/2015/12/bitcoins-creator-satoshi-nakamoto-is-probably-this-unknown-australian-genius/” on 2015-12-08
• PseudonymousUser estimated 95% on 2015-12-09
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 65% on 2015-12-09
• ioannes estimated 60% and said “following gwern, who gave only 60% on 2015-11-15 (notable because their Wired piece was published shortly thereafter: http://www.wired.com/2015/12/bitcoins-creator-satoshi-nakamoto-is-probably-this-unknown-australian-genius/))” on 2016-01-20
• equivrel estimated 50% on 2016-02-14
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 0% on 2016-02-21
• themusicgod1 estimated 46% on 2016-03-11
• leo_gri estimated 60% on 2016-03-21
• ChristianKl estimated 30% on 2016-03-21
• EloiseRosen estimated 30% on 2016-03-21
• bitbatbot estimated 35% on 2016-03-22
• mrmrpotatohead estimated 20% on 2016-03-23
• penten estimated 40% on 2016-10-31
• pranomostro estimated 10% on 2018-12-08
• Baeboo estimated 22% on 2018-12-12
• deleteyourbrain estimated 100% on 2019-04-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 2% on 2019-04-26
• NickN estimated 30% on 2020-08-16
• Baeboo estimated 10% on 2020-08-16
• M estimated 10% on 2021-11-30
• Baeboo estimated 2% on 2021-12-02
• Leo estimated 1% on 2021-12-03
• Baeboo estimated 1% on 2021-12-04
• M   judged this prediction wrong on 2022-01-01.