“10^18 FLOPS by 2020” —Shane Legg

Created by gwern on 2010-09-11; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-01-25.

• gwern estimated 70% on 2010-09-11
• gwern said “http://www.vetta.org/2009/12/tick-tock-tick-tock-bing/” on 2010-09-11
• gwern said “cf. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1987” on 2010-12-10
• themusicgod1 estimated 53% on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 50% and said “Related metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/415/when-will-the-first-exaflop-performer-appear/” on 2019-01-10
• Bruno Parga said “If this means a single exaflop supercomputer, it’s wrong.” on 2020-01-01
• pranomostro   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-25.