“Construction of 'Ground Zero mosque' to commence before midnight ET 31 Dec 2010” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2010-09-11; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.

• gwern estimated 15% on 2010-09-11
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=733994&z=1284245683730 at 10%” on 2010-09-11
• gwern said “I’m increasingly sure the mosque will be built there, but the founder is really milking it (with NYT opeds etc.), so no time to actually get going.” on 2010-09-11
• gwern said “cf. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1754 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1755” on 2010-09-11
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2010-12-30.