Boston attack will turn out to be a domestic issue rather than politically motivated as judged by the inclusion of a terrorist organisation.

Created by a0c4a123f7 on 2013-04-15; known on 2013-12-25; judged right by a0c4a123f7 on 2014-01-01.

• a0c4a123f7 estimated 75% on 2013-04-15
• gwern said “what about lone wolves inspired by AQ or jihadist propaganda?” on 2013-04-16
• disinter estimated 10% on 2013-04-16
• RandomThinker estimated 55% and said “Domestic, inspired by April 15 tax day is my guess.” on 2013-04-16
• Peter Hurford estimated 55% on 2013-04-16
• hedges estimated 60% on 2013-04-16
• Osuniev estimated 70% on 2013-04-17
• RandomThinker said “This is going to be hard to judge as well as to whether they were motivated by domestic or foreign issue” on 2013-04-19
• a0c4a123f7 changed the deadline from “on 2013-04-22” on 2013-04-22
• a0c4a123f7 said “There doesn’t appear to be an organisation involved but we don’t know yet. Thus I’ve added a few months to the timer.” on 2013-04-22
• Peter Hurford said “Should we add a few more months?” on 2013-06-26
• a0c4a123f7 changed the deadline from “on 2013-06-22” on 2013-07-01
• a0c4a123f7 said “Yeah, okay – I’ll stick on until the end of the year.” on 2013-07-01
• JoshuaZ said “How to judge this one? ” on 2013-12-30
• a0c4a123f7 said “Difficult, on the one hand they don’t appear to have been part of any terrorist orgs, on the other hand they’ve cited foreign wars and radical Islam. However, they also failed to integrate into the culture.” on 2014-01-01
• a0c4a123f7 said “I’m gonna stick to the original spec and judge this one right, because they weren’t part of a terror org. But the difficulty wrt domestic/political does make me regard the prediction as containing a number of rather flawed assumptions.” on 2014-01-01
• a0c4a123f7   judged this prediction right on 2014-01-01.