“Construction of 'Ground Zero mosque' to commence before midnight ET 30 Jun 2011” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2010-09-11; known on 2011-06-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-30.

• gwern estimated 25% on 2010-09-11
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=733995&z=1284245795277 at 33.3%” on 2010-09-11
• gwern said “cf http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1755 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1753” on 2010-09-11
• gimpf estimated 10% on 2010-12-13
• gwern said “intrade around 1.5%, no mention of construction in WP, marking wrong” on 2011-06-30
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-06-30.