“Construction of 'Ground Zero mosque' to commence before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2010-09-11; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.

• gwern estimated 70% on 2010-09-11
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=733996&z=1284245846459 not trading” on 2010-09-11
• gwern said “cf http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1753 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1754” on 2010-09-11
• gimpf estimated 20% on 2010-12-13
• Larks estimated 40% on 2011-01-01
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% on 2011-12-26
• PseudonymousUser said “Doesn’t sound like construction started: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Park51#Continuing_efforts” on 2012-01-01
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-01.